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	The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future by Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Scott Burns
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Product Details Binding Paperback Dewey Decimal Number 332.02400973 EAN 9780262612081 ISBN 0262612089 Manufacturer The MIT Press Number Of Items 1 Number Of Pages 302 Publication Date January 19, 2005 Publisher The MIT Press Availability Usually ships in 24 hours Product Description One of Library Journal's Best Business Books of 2004, A Forbes.com Top Ten Business Book for 2004, One of Barron’s 25 Best Books of 2004, Winner in the category of Economics in the 2004 Professional/Scholarly Publishing Annual Awards Competition presented by the Association of American Publishers, Inc. and CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title for 2004 *This paperback edition of The Coming Generational Storm* has been revised and updated and includes a new foreword by the authors. In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into old age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers. How will Social Security and Medicare function with fewer working taxpayers to support these programs? According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, if our government continues on the course it has set, we'll see skyrocketing tax rates, drastically lower retirement and health benefits, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating dollar, unemployment, and political instability. The government has lost its compass, say Kotlikoff and Burns, and the Bush administration's spending and tax policies have charted a course straight into the coming generational storm. Kotlikoff and Burns take us on a guided tour of our generational imbalance: There's the 'fiscal child abuse' that will double the taxes paid by the next generation. There's also the 'deficit delusion' of the under-reported national debt. And none of this, they say, will be solved by any of the popularly touted remedies: cutting taxes, technological progress, immigration, foreign investment, or the elimination of wasteful government spending. Kotlikoff and Burns propose bold new policies, including meaningful reforms of Social Security and Medicare, that are simple, straightforward, and geared to attract support from both political parties. 'This may be the year's most important book.' --Choice; 'Having painted a fiscal picture as awful as 'Guernica,' the authors unveil two bold plans.... Their ideas are thoughtful and, whatever doubts one might have, preferable to the status quo, which sticks the country's entire financial future in the ICU.' --Tod G. Bucholtz, The Wall Street Journal; 'Lays out the problem in understandable language and compelling detail.' --Washington Post; 'The policy solutions of Kotlikoff and Burns are specific and ingenious.... Moreover, one of the real strengths of [their] book is that it gives some good insights about how individuals can prepare themselves for a future economy in which tax rates and inflation rise and social benefits become smaller.... [T]he real import of their argument is that even with growth, the financing of the current entitlement system will eventually have to be dramatically rebuilt- and that's a message that should be heard.' --Michael Mandel, Business Week; 'This is a book any serious investor should absorb and act upon. If you're one of the 77 million American Baby Boomers to whom it is addressed... you'd best read it soon.' --Jonathan Chevreau, National Post; 'A serious attempt to look at a problem that most people are trying to ignore.' --Alan Beattie, Financial Times; 'Here's a book to help us batten down the hatches.' --Chris Tucker, Dallas Morning News' '...Filled with advice on protecting what you've got and making it grow before and during retirement.' — Chris Tucker*, Dallas Morning News* '...Kotlikoff proffer plenty of evidence to back up their claims.' — Anne Wagner, National Journal '...[A] serious attempt to look at a problem that most people are trying to ignore.' — Alan Beattie, Financial Times 'The Coming Generational Storm ...lays out in easy-to-understand prose why Social Security and Medicare need a comprehensive overhaul.' — Gregory D. Hess, Los Angeles Times 'The Coming Generational Storm documents in frightening detail America's reckless fiscal trajectory as it barrels toward bankruptcy. The need to revamp Medicare and Social Security is urgent. This book is a must-read for anyone who cares about our nation's future.' —Janet Yellen, University of California, Berkeley, Member, Federal Reserve Board (1994-1997), and Chair, Council of Economic Advisers (1997-1999) 'The Coming Generational Storm is a well written summary of an impressive and important body of carefully documented research. The book demonstrates clearly the folly of existing tax and transfer policies in the face of the impending retirement of the baby boom generation. Anyone interested in the future economic viability of American society and the economic problems we are bequeathing to our children should read this study.' —James J. Heckman, The University of Chicago, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2000) 'The Coming Generational Storm is one of the most important (and refreshingly irreverent) policy analyses of recent years. Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns ask what will happen to our economy and way of life when the baby boomers meet the current Medicare and Social Security systems. Their answers, using the innovative techniques of 'generational accounting' developed by Kotlikoff and others, demonstrate how close we are to a genuine fiscal precipice and the hard landing that awaits us. For our current presidential aspirants, the authors also provide some provocative ideas for how to ameliorate the damage this storm will certainly leave in its wake.' —Robert J. Shapiro, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution and the Progressive Policy Institute, and former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs 'The Coming Generational Storm lays out the problems in understandable language and compelling detail.' — The Washington Post 'Among academic experts, Larry Kotlikoff has earned the title 'Mr. Generational Accounting.' His unfuzzy arithmetic decisively rebuts the Bush tax cuts, which are based on the delusion that 5 - 4 = 6, not 1. Read and judge for yourself the specter of our future: too many retirees dependent on too few working-age people. Fiscal imprudence now mandates broken promises later.' —Paul A. Samuelson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1970) 'Between a rock and a hard place. We must all too soon realize that we want to spend more on transfers (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) than we are willing to pay in taxes. And the prospective $44 trillion shortfall is, almost literally, beyond ordinary comprehension. Documented diagnosis, along with suggested reforms, are first steps toward constructive dialogue.' —James M. Buchanan, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, George Mason University and Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1986) 'Brilliant insights on the me generation versus the next generation. Better still, smart advice on equally vexing questions like whether to invest in a 401(k) or a second mortgage.' —Sylvia Nasar, author of A Beautiful Mind 'Having painted a fiscal picture as awful as 'Guernica,' the authors unveil two bold plans....[An] engaging book.' — Todd G. Buchholz, The Wall Street Journal 'I lie awake nights worrying about the fiscal crisis described in The Coming Generational Storm. This is by far the single most important problem in U.S. economic policy. Every American should read this fabulous book.' —George Akerlof, University of California, Berkeley, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) 'If Stephen King wrote about economics it would look like this. Kotlikoff and Burns have gazed into our future and seen a nightmare. The authors describe that nighmare vividly and identify why our elected officials on both sides of the political aisle are too cowardly to save us. Every U.S. citizen should read and digest this book before it is too late.' —Kevin A. Hassett, Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute, and co-author of Dow 36,000 'Kotlikoff has been one of the pioneers of the new economics of generational accounting. If anyone foresaw the deterioration of the U.S. government's fiscal health, he did. Now, with journalist Scott Burns, he has written a book that spells out, in crystal-clear layman's terms, the disturbing truth about the rising tide of red ink.' —Niall Ferguson, Stern School of Business, New York University, and author of Empire and The Cash Nexus 'No economist has thought more clearly or spoken more resolutely about our long-term fiscal challenges than Larry Kotlikoff. In plain talk backed by economic rigor and the powerful models that he and his colleagues have pioneered, Kotlikoff and coauthor Scott Burns expose the shoddy thinking and false premises that lie at the heart of U.S. fiscal policy and that risk the economic well-being of future generations. They show how reckless George W. Bush has been with our economic future, but also show that the evasions from fiscal honesty extend well beyond the irresponsibility of this administration. And they offer solutions that are clear, bold, and controversial. You may not accept them in full, but you will understand better than ever before the real choices that we face. This book is a must-read for a country adrift in fiscal shortsightedness and political spin.' —Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute, Columbia University 'The policy solutions of Kotlikoff and Burns are specific and ingenious....' — Michael Mandel, Business Week 'There's a lot of frivolous criticism of our politicians, but this book hits the mark, convincingly documenting their biggest sin: the failure to account for the magnitude of a huge government deficit crisis. The accounting scandals of Enron, WorldCom, and Parmalat pale by comparison. Read this book so you can start preparing for much higher taxes in the future for you and your children.' —Robert J. Shiller, Yale University, author of Irrational Exuberance and The New Financial Order 'This is a book any serious investor should absorb and act upon.' — Jonathan Chevreau, National Post 'This is a sobering look at an impending crisis with implications for all of us. Recommended for all collections.' — Stacey Marien, Library Journal 'This may be the year's most important book. Essential.' — R. M. Whaples, CHOICE One of Library Journal's Best Business Books of 2004, A Forbes.com Top Ten Business Book for 2004, One of Barron’s 25 Best Books of 2004, Winner in the category of Economics in the 2004 Professional/Scholarly Publishing Annual Awards Competition presented by the Association of American Publishers, Inc. and CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title for 2004 *This paperback edition of The Coming Generational Storm* has been revised and updated and includes a new foreword by the authors.** In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into old age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers. How will Social Security and Medicare function with fewer working taxpayers to support these programs? According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, if our government continues on the course it has set, we'll see skyrocketing tax rates, drastically lower retirement and health benefits, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating dollar, unemployment, and political instability. The government has lost its compass, say Kotlikoff and Burns, and the Bush administration's spending and tax policies have charted a course straight into the coming generational storm. Kotlikoff and Burns take us on a guided tour of our generational imbalance: There's the 'fiscal child abuse' that will double the taxes paid by the next generation. There's also the 'deficit delusion' of the under-reported national debt. And none of this, they say, will be solved by any of the popularly touted remedies: cutting taxes, technological progress, immigration, foreign investment, or the elimination of wasteful government spending. Kotlikoff and Burns propose bold new policies, including meaningful reforms of Social Security and Medicare, that are simple, straightforward, and geared to attract support from both political parties. 'The Coming Generational Storm is one of the most important (and refreshingly irreverent) policy analyses of recent years. Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns ask what will happen to our economy and way of life when the baby boomers meet the current Medicare and Social Security systems. Their answers, using the innovative techniques of 'generational accounting' developed by Kotlikoff and others, demonstrate how close we are to a genuine fiscal precipice and the hard landing that awaits us. For our current presidential aspirants, the authors also provide some provocative ideas for how to ameliorate the damage this storm will certainly leave in its wake.' --Robert J. Shapiro, Managing Director and Founding Partner, Sonecon, LLC, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution and the Progressive Policy Institute, and former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs 'Among academic experts, Larry Kotlikoff has earned the title 'Mr. Generational Accounting.' His unfuzzy arithmetic decisively rebuts the Bush tax cuts, which are based on the delusion that 5 - 4 = 6, not 1. Read and judge for yourself the specter of our future: too many retirees dependent on too few working-age people. Fiscal imprudence now mandates broken promises later.' --Paul A. Samuelson, Institute Professor Emeritus, MIT, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1970) 'Kotlikoff has been one of the pioneers of the new economics of generational accounting. If anyone foresaw the deterioration of the U.S. government's fiscal health, he did. Now, with journalist Scott Burns, he has written a book that spells out, in crystal-clear layman's terms, the disturbing truth about the rising tide of red ink.' --Niall Ferguson, Stern School of Business, New York University, and author of Empire and The Cash Nexus 'I lie awake nights worrying about the fiscal crisis described in The Coming Generational Storm. This is by far the single most important problem in US economic policy. Every American should read this fabulous book.' --George Akerlof, Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) 'The Coming Generational Storm is a well written summary of an impressive and important body of carefully documented research. The book demonstrates clearly the folly of existing tax and transfer policies in the face of the impending retirement of the baby boom generation. Anyone interested in the future economic viability of American society and the economic problems we are bequeathing to our children should read this study.' --James J. Heckman, Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, The University of Chicago, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2000) 'The Coming Generational Storm documents in frightening detail America's reckless fiscal trajectory as it barrels toward bankruptcy. The need to revamp Medicare and Social Security is urgent. This book is a must-read for anyone who cares about our nation's future.' --Janet Yellen, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Member, Federal Reserve Board (1994-1997), and Chair, Council of Economic Advisers (1997-1999) 'As someone who has written extensively on global aging and its profound implications, I was delighted to read The Coming Generational Storm. It is an extremely important and original contribution.' --Peter G. Peterson, Chairman, The Blackstone Group, and author of Gray Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America--And The World 'Kotlikoff and Burns document and analyze the most serious issue facing the American government today: the looming intergenerational conflict created by its gross failure to develop a consistent plan to fund and manage entitlements for the elderly, the cost of which will explode when the baby boom generation retires. This book is essential reading for those concerned about their own future and their childrens'.' --Daniel McFadden, Cox Professor of Economics , University of California, Berkeley, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2000) 'Brilliant insights on the me generation vs.the next generation. Better still, smart advice on equally vexing questions like whether to invest in a 401(k) or a second mortgage.' --Sylvia Nasar, John S. and James L. Knight Professor of Business Journalism, Columbia University, author of A Beautiful Mind 'No economist has thought more clearly or spoken more resolutely about our long-term fiscal challenges than Larry Kotlikoff. In plain talk backed by economic rigor and the powerful models that he and his colleagues have pioneered, Kotlikoff and co-author Scott Burns expose the shoddy thinking and false premises that lie at the heart of U.S. fiscal policy and that risk the economic well-being of future generations. They show how reckless George W. Bush has been with our economic future, but also show that the evasions from fiscal honesty extend well beyond the irresponsibility of this Administration. And they offer solutions that are clear, bold, and controversial. You may not accept them in full, but you will understand better than ever before the real choices that we face. This book is a must-read for a country adrift in fiscal shortsightedness and political spin.' --Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute, Columbia University 'If Stephen King wrote about economics it would look like this. Kotlikoff and Burns have gazed into our future and seen a nightmare. The authors describe that nighmare vividly and identify why our elected officials on both sides of the political aisle are too cowardly to save us. Every U.S. citizen should read and digest this book before it is too late.' --Kevin A. Hassett, Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute, and co-author of Dow 36,000 'Between a rock and a hard place. We must all too soon realize that we want to spend more on transfers (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) than we are willing to pay in taxes. And the prospective $44 trillion shortfall is, almost literally, beyond ordinary comprehension. Documented diagnosis, along with suggested reforms, are first steps toward constructive dialogue.' --James M. Buchanan, Buchanan Center for Political Economy, George Mason University, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1986) 'There's a lot of frivolous criticism of our politicians, but this book hits the mark, convincingly documenting their biggest sin: the failure to account for the magnitude of a huge government deficit crisis. The accounting scandals of Enron, WorldCom, and Parmalat pale by comparison. Read this book so you can start preparing for much higher taxes in the future for you and your children.' --Robert J. Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University, author of Irrational Exuberance and The New Financial Order Laurence J. Kotlikoff is Professor of Economics at Boston University. One of the nation's leading experts on fiscal policy, national saving, and personal finance, Kotlikoff is the author of Essays on Savings, Bequests, Altruism, and Life-Cycle Planning (2001), Generational Policy (2003), The Coming Generational Storm (2004), all published by The MIT Press, and other books. Dallas Morning News personal finance columnist Scott Burns is nationally syndicated by Universal Press. His column can be read on the Web at www.scottburns.com and on MSN's MoneyCentral, one of the three largest financial Web sites. Customers who bought this item also bought Spend 'Til the End: The Revolutionary Guide to Raising Your Living Standard--Today and When You Retire Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books) The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Customer Reviews for: The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future Rating - Eye-opener This is, simply put, a real eye-opener. I've been saying for years that the economy was a house of cards (and the housing bust and present/coming recession are proving me right), but I had no idea. This will change some of what I do regarding my present and future finances. I give the authors credit for the way they add in occasional humor in the book. It doesn't obscure the subject at hand, but lightens up an otherwise difficult subject. Rating - Excellent, Thought-Provoking Book This is an absolutely incredible book. Anyone who is interested in the future of our Social Security System and the Medicare and Medicaid systems must read this book. The authors provide good, documented evidence to explain what is broken in these vital systems. The authors explain why current politicians' plans for reform will not work and need to be revised. Most importantly the authors also give their suggestions on how to fix Social Security and Medicare ... Read More Rating - Essential Reading - Save Early and Save Often This book should be required reading for all high-school sophomores who are going to inherit the economic problems the authors lay out in the prologue. The more awareness my generation (x) and the younger generations get about the mounting economic conditions we will face within the next 25 years, the better prepared we will all be to fix, or at least adjust to them. At times the book is a bit too academic and for that I give it only 4 stars but there ... Read More Rating - Informative, but speculative Kotlikoff and Burns rightly portray congress, the president, judges, the AARP, and anyone else who favors increases, or even the status quo, of social security, Medicare, and Medicaid policies as truly irresponsible. The fact that these three entitlement programs will bankrupt the country within 50 years has been known for at least 10 years (when I started to pay attention to politics). Every year, reforms are spoken about, even good ones that would for the most part ... Read More see more reviews See all books by author Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Scott Burns

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