Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership),Books,Free Shipping,1422122875,

	Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership) by Max H. Bazerman, Michael D. Watkins
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Product Details Binding Paperback Dewey Decimal Number 658 EAN 9781422122877 ISBN 1422122875 Manufacturer Harvard Business School Press Number Of Items 1 Number Of Pages 336 Publication Date April 16, 2008 Publisher Harvard Business School Press Availability Usually ships in 24 hours Product Description Even the best-run companies can get blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures. In Predictable Surprises, Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins show you how to minimize your risk by understanding and lowering the psychological, organizational, and political barriers preventing you from foreseeing calamity. They then describe the powerful tools--including incentives and formal coalitions--that business leaders can use to ferret out and fend off threats invisible to insiders. Failure see what's coming exposes your company to predictable surprises. Given the stakes involved, this book should count among every business leader's most trusted resources. Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as 'an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences.' They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved Even the best-run companies can get blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures. In Predictable Surprises, Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins show you how to minimize your risk by understanding and lowering the psychological, organizational, and political barriers preventing you from foreseeing calamity. They then describe the powerful tools--including incentives and formal coalitions--that business leaders can use to ferret out and fend off threats invisible to insiders. Failure see what's coming exposes your company to predictable surprises. Given the stakes involved, this book should count among every business leader's most trusted resources. Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He is also formally affiliated with the Kennedy School of Government, the Harvard Psychology Department, and the Program on Negotiation. Michael D. Watkins is Professor of General Management at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, and co-founder of Genesis Advisers, a leadership development company. Customers who bought this item also bought Know-How: The 8 Skills That Separate People Who Perform from Those Who Don't The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports, Second Edition Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Judgment in Managerial Decision Making Customer Reviews for: Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership) Rating - This is a great business book! This book underscores how well-wishing and positive thinking are not effective ways of handling risks of business. It's a great book to help you get past the human tendancies to think and hope and actually PLAN for the future. Rating - Enlightening The book jumps around but makes clear and valid points. A great eye opener! I would recommend this to students, leaders, informed citizens...just about anybody. I'm definitely getting more copies for friends and loved ones. Rating - On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their ... Read More Rating - Predictably bad A major shortcoming of Bazerman and Watkins' book is the failure to provide adequate evidence to support their arguments about what they call "predictable surprises", which they define as "an event or series of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." Bazerman and Watkins build their case substantially on just two examples: aviation ... Read More see more reviews See all books by author Max H. Bazerman, Michael D. Watkins

Books : Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them (Center for Public Leadership)